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Greetings Decision maker,
When a threat seems clear to you, it’s hard to believe others will deny it. Yet smart people deny serious risks, even obvious ones, all the time.
Denialism in professional settings happens more often than you might think. A four-year study of 286 organizations that had forced out their CEOs found that 23 percent were fired for denying reality, meaning refusing to recognize negative facts
about their organization. Other research shows that professionals at all levels suffer from the tendency to deny uncomfortable facts. Scholars term this thinking error the ostrich effect, after the (mythical) notion that ostriches stick their heads into the sand when they encounter threats.
The ostrich effect is one of over 100 dangerous judgment errors that result from how our brains are wired, what scholars in cognitive neuroscience and behavioral economics call cognitive biases. Cognitive biases represent a critically important yet greatly underappreciated source of risk, creating a strong imperative to practice effective cognitive bias risk (CBR) management.
To learn more about how to address CBR around risk denialism, check out this blog.
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Prefer video to text? See this video based on the blog:
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If you prefer audio, listen to this podcast based on the blog:
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 “Dr. Gleb Tsipursky presented a webinar to members of Washington Finance Officers Association (WFOA) on the potential impact of the current pandemic COVID-19 for social and financial environments over the next several years. Although the news is somewhat dismal, it is very enlightening and realistic to prepare us for what we will need to anticipate moving forward. Dr. Gleb is very well spoken and presents his information in a user-friendly manner that almost anyone can
follow and understand. His webinar presentation software was also very personal so you could feel he was in the room with you. He was very open to answer any questions. At the end of the presentation, I appreciated the fact that I felt better prepared to move forward and view the necessary changes in our day to day lives instead of waiting for it to end. He provided suggestions and solutions to how our environments will need to adapt for many years.
Administratively working with Dr. Gleb was very easy. He was well prepared, responded very quickly to our requests and was one of the easiest speakers that I have worked with. I would highly recommend Dr. Gleb's presentation for all as the topic helps to understand personally as well as professionally changes that will be necessary in the future.”
Washington Finance Officers Association
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Recent Public Appearances
You might find of interest a number of recent public appearances about my three recent best-selling books:
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What's Up With Me
After I shared about getting vaccinated in the last newsletter, a number of you wrote back
about your own vaccine experience. Many talked about the sense of freedom associated with getting vaccinated; that’s definitely something I experienced as well.
However, I’ve observed a bit too much binary thinking. Many of those who got their shots perceive themselves invulnerable. As discussed in the article/podcast/videocast above, they deny any risks associated with COVID after vaccinations.
That’s unfortunate. 90% effectiveness (for Pfizer and Moderna) is not 100%. The wise decision-maker approaches the danger of infection after vaccination with a probabilistic thinking approach.
That means not zeroing out any dangers from COVID, but decreasing it by 90%, compared to what you were doing before getting vaccines. For example, if you were avoiding going to stores beforehand, perhaps you can feel reasonably safe going to stores with good airflow where everyone else is masked, even for a long time. However, you might avoid spending long periods of time in a space with strangers who aren’t masked, such as at an indoor bar.
The same applies to organizations bringing their employees back to the office. Perhaps you might consider only allowing vaccinated employees to come to the office, and asking anyone who is vaccine-hesitant to work from home.
Of course, your own risk appetite should determine your own approach to this issue. My broader point is to use a probabilistic thinking approach to evaluating COVID risks even after widespread vaccine availability.
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Recommendations for You
My recommendation is to build out a probabilistic thinking-informed risk model for the current situation with COVID based on vaccine availability and spread in your area. Whether you, your family members, and your employees are vaccinated or not should be a key consideration, depending on whether you’re evaluating personal or professional risks. Unfortunately, the pandemic is not yet over, and we should be wary of our intuitive temptations to zero out the threat of COVID despite widespread vaccine availability.
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Help Me Serve Your Needs
Do you have a difficult time dealing with smart people who deny serious risks? When was the last time you applauded someone for welcoming, and fixing problems related to, negative information? Which next steps will you take based on this newsletter?
Would love to get your feedback! Helping you avoid dangerous threats and maximize golden opportunities is my highest aspiration. Any feedback you can provide on this content - or anything else - will help me provide you with more value for your success.
Decisively Yours,
Gleb
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Dr. Gleb Tsipursky
CEO of Disaster Avoidance Experts
PS: Did you miss out on reading any of my bestselling books?
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Let's be safe! 👍
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