You Need to Make Remote and Hybrid Team-Building Fun: Interview with Nate Martin, CEO at Puzzle Break (Wise Decision Maker Guide 80)

What's Up With Me

“Under what circumstances would Russia use a nuclear weapon?” That’s the title of a report by top forecasters predicting a 9% chance of Russia using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine in the next 6 months. A separate and independent group of top forecasters predicted a 16% chance of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year. If a nuclear weapon is used, they predict a 10% chance of an all-out nuclear war, bringing the total chance of a nuclear war to 1.6%.

It feels unreal, but these groups are made up of top forecasters who won a number of prediction tournaments. Given this reality, I’ve been putting in some efforts into this low-likelihood, but high-impact possibility. I am getting more supplies for my basement, including a Geiger counter and books on surviving a nuclear war. I’ve also shifted my investment portfolio into safer assets: it won’t matter if there’s a total nuclear war, but it matters in the 14.4% scenario where a nuclear weapon is used in Ukraine and doesn’t result in a nuclear war. The stock market is definitely going to drop a lot if a nuclear weapon is used, after all. I’m also talking to friends and family about this possibility, helping them think about this scenario. And I encourage you to take some steps to prepare, to the extent it seems doable for you to do so.

Recommendations for You

Here are a few pieces of content that I found valuable and hope you will, too:

“Lost touch with someone? Reach out – your friend will likely appreciate it more than you think” (article) The next time you wonder whether to reach out to a friend, family member, classmate, or other person who’s been out of touch for a long time, go ahead and do it. According to this recently-published research, it’s likely they’ll appreciate it more than you think.
“Want to Achieve Your Biggest Long-Term Goals? Science Says Avoid the Dreaded Negative Lumping Effect” (article) Research shows that falling just short of a huge goal can feel like total failure, and may cause you to stop trying. We tend to think of progress that doesn't reach our expectations - no matter how significant that progress may have been - as total failure. Psychologists call that the negative lumping effect, which dismisses achievement when it falls short of categorical reform.
“Doctors Know They Prescribe Too Many Antibiotics. Why Don’t They Stop?” (podcast with transcript). Antibiotics save lives. But what happens when we use them too much? This podcast looks at how changing physicians’ behavior could help prevent a major public health disaster.

Hope you find this content helpful!

Would love to get your feedback on what you found most useful about this edition of the “Wise Decision Maker Guide” - simply reply to this email.

Decisively Yours,

Gleb

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