FTX Fiasco Caused by SBF’s Double-or-Nothing Philosophy (Wise Decision Maker Guide 86)

Greetings Decision maker,

"Let’s say there’s a game: 51 percent, you double the Earth out somewhere else; 49 percent, it all disappears. Would you play that game? And would you keep on playing that, double or nothing?"

The vast majority of us would not take the risk of playing that game even once. After all, it seems morally atrocious to take a 49% chance of all of human civilization disappearing, for a 51% chance of doubling the value of our civilization – essentially a coin flip.

Yet when asked exactly that in a March 2022 podcast with Tyler Cowen, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) was quite willing to play that game – and keep playing it, over and over again.

To learn more, check out this blog.

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What's Up With Me

After using ChatGPT for the last several months, I can say with confidence that ChatGPT will change everything - well, at least for those who do writing with any frequency. I’ve been experimenting with various forms of AI-generated content for years, starting with GPT-3, and it's clear to me that ChatGPT is a giant leap forward. It generates text that’s indistinguishable from that written by humans, if you know how to use it well. I feel kind of sad about that, since it will make it much more difficult for high-quality content generated by actual people to stand out from the upcoming deluge of ChatGPT-generated content.

Content curation will become more important from now on, so going forward I will move the "Recommendations for You" section you've seen in previous editions of this newsletter into its own email. Stay tuned for it every other Tuesday at 1pm EST for curated articles to help you make sense of our increasingly-disrupted world.

Speaking of AI content generation, here is an image I created with the help of DALL-E-2 to represent AI doing content creation. Yes, AI tools will challenge creators of all kinds in our brave new world.

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