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Wise Decision Maker Guide: Wise Decisions Through Cognitive Science

Greetings Decision maker,

How much thought do you give to your future? Probably more than most, since you’re registered for the Wise Decision Maker Guide.

You might even have a long-term plan for your future, based on the common advice to develop a five-year plan if you want to be successful. Similarly, you might have developed a five-year or even a ten-year or longer plan for your business or career.

Well, did you know that the typical five-year strategic planning forecasts perform about as well as dart-throwing chimpanzees? Cognitive neuroscience and behavioral economics researchers like myself have conducted many studies on people who are the most skilled forecasters among us. Apparently, they perform no better than chance on economic predictions more than three to five years out.

image of chimpanzee throwing darts
Sorry to burst your bubble, if you had a bubble. Typical three-year or five-year or ten-year plans for your business or career relieve your anxiety and give you a sense of comfort and security. Unfortunately, this comfort, relief, and security are like a house built on sand. To quote Matthew 7:26-27 "And everyone who hears these words of mine and does not do them will be like a foolish man who built his house on the sand. And the rain fell, and the floods came, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell, and great was the fall of it."

photo of destroyed house
Defend Your Future

To defend your future, don’t build your house on sand and
avoid the typical strategic planning process, which involves formulating your goals, making forecasts, and planning around those forecasts to achieve your goals. Instead of forecasting what will happen, you’ll get much farther, research shows, by doing the following in relation to your desired goals:

  1. Consider potential threats, both ones likely and unlikely, known and unknown to your goals
  2. Do the same for opportunities
  3. Set aside appropriate resources to address threats and seize opportunities
  4. Make your plans more flexible and resilient than you anticipate you might need

Think about yourself five years ago. Did you think you would be who you are today? What about your business: did everything go as you thought it would go?

I’m guessing that you answered "No" for both. I know I did. Yet it’s so very tempting for me to think I know where I’ll be, and where my business will be, five years from now. My clients face the same temptation, and I’m guessing you do as well.

That’s what the Defend Your Future technique is about. While the Failure-Proofing technique you learned about in the previous WDMG email focuses on an individual decision, project, or process, the Defend Your Future technique empowers you to develop a strategic approach to a whole area of decision making.

I developed it to help my consulting and coaching clients address future threats and take advantage of opportunities for their organization, their department in a larger organization, their personal career, their physical and/or mental health, their relationships, and other areas. I invite you to use it for the same purpose, applying it every quarter or so to evaluate the relevant area where you want to prevent failures and maximize success. Take a few minutes to decide on specific next steps to use this technique and make a plan to take these next steps in the next week.

Adapt this tool to your needs by reading the blog about the Defend Your Future technique:


If you prefer video to text, here’s a video:
If you prefer audio, listen to this podcast:

Podcast: 10 Steps for Strategic Planning to Defend Your Future
Decision Aid on Defending Your Future

Given that it’s highly counterintuitive to distrust our own forecasts, and instead focus on threats, opportunities, resources, and resilience, the key to defending your future is reminding yourself to use this technique. That’s what I found in my work with my clients, so I provided them with a decision aid, a poster to download and print out for their office and for the meeting rooms and offices of others in their teams.

20% Off Decision Aid Coupon

Get your own decision aid to remind you about the Defend Your Future technique and use code AID20 to get a 20% discount.

What’s Up With Me

I’m writing to you from Asheville, NC, where I’m in the middle of an 11-day, 3-city book tour. This morning I gave a keynote to a higher education HR conference based on my just-published book, Never Go With Your Gut: How Pioneering Leaders Make the Best Decisions and Avoid Business Disasters.

Do you think the organization where you work might benefit from a talk on the book? What about an association to which you belong? Check out my speaking experience and potential book-based programs and let me know.

Do you know anyone who has an established podcast or blog who'd like to introduce their listeners to a just-published book based on cutting edge research? I’d be happy to give an interview or write a guest blog. With over 400 articles and 350 interviews, I have extensive media experience.

Never Go With Your Gut Book Endorsement

Another endorsement for Never Go With Your Gut, this one from a former skeptic:

I was compelled to read Gleb Tsipursky's book yet found myself fighting with his premise. What do you mean don't go with my gut? Then I kept reading and applied his 8 step model to some major choices in front of me. Next, I reflected on a few disasters that perhaps could have been avoided if I had this book earlier. With practical tips and takeaways and research to support the methodology, this book will be on my recommendation list for the leaders whom I coach and train and added to my personal favorites.
photo of Barb Girson
CEO and Founder of My Sales Tactics, LLC and Registered Corporate Coach

Next Time in the Wise Decision Maker Guide

Next time in the Wise Decision Maker Guide - which usually hits your inbox every first and third Tuesday, so November 19 for the next one - you’ll get help building up the mental habits you need to defeat dangerous judgment errors and maximize success in your professional and personal life!

Help Me Serve Your Needs

What area of your career or business or other life area will you apply the Defend Your Future technique to first? Why would you choose that area to prioritize? What steps will you use to remind yourself to use this technique, and more broadly to remember the mindset behind this technique?


As always, what you share helps me further refine the resources I create to help you avoid decision disasters and achieve your dreams, hopes, and desires. I look forward to learning about how you plan to Defend Your Future!

P.S. Got your copy of Never Go With Your Gut? Don’t forget the digital bonuses you get for ordering! Just fill out this form, and you will get 1) free digital copy of my Assessment on Dangerous Judgment Errors in the Workplace; 2) A decision aid business card of 5 Key Questions to Avoid Decisions Disasters that you can get printed and keep in your wallet, on your desk, and give to members of your team; and 3) Two decision aid posters for you to print out for your work or home office and for your team to print out: one for 5 Key Questions to Avoid Decisions Disasters and one for the Eight-Step Decision-Making Model on Making the Best Decisions

P.P.S. Don’t miss the early bird discounts to join me for a deep dive into Never Go With Your Gut.


Decisively Yours,

Gleb

photo of Gleb Tsipursky
Dr. Gleb Tsipursky
CEO of Disaster Avoidance Experts

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